Decades of covert ops have led to this tense moment in the Islamic Republic. If the regime is toppled, India will be strategically strained on more than one front

What began as protests against soaring inflation and currency collapse across Iranian cities on December 28 quickly evolved into broader political demands, including calls for reform and, in some quarters, regime change, posing the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. As confrontations escalated, violence by protestors and the authorities claimed lives, underscoring the gravity of the moment.

Donald Trump’s response was characteristically forceful. Posting on social media platform Truth Social, he warned that the US was “locked and loaded” should Iranian security forces continue killing protesters. Behind the rhetoric, however, lies a more calculated posture: Washington has reinforced its naval presence in the region, imposed new punitive tariffs on governments engaging with Tehran and kept the option of military intervention conspicuously on the table—without signalling imminent action.

The central question confronting regional and global powers is not whether Iran will collapse tomorrow, but what the consequences would be if a long-running pressure campaign—combining economic sanctions, domestic unrest, the persistent threat of force, and Israel’s two-decades-long shadow war—ultimately succeeds in toppling the Islamic Republic. While Tehran has survived repeated crises, the convergence of pressures in 2025-26 marks a departure from anything it has previously faced.

Why things are different this time is that, by December 2025, the US dollar had surged to nearly 145,000 Iranian tomans, inflation stood at 42.2 percent, food prices had risen 72 percent, and healthcare costs by 50 percent from the previous year. Compounding these pressures was Iran’s declining regional influence following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria—long regarded as Tehran’s most crucial Arab ally.

Unlike the uprisings of 2009, 2019, and 2022, the current protests are broader in both geography and social composition. They extend well beyond the major cities into smaller towns and rural areas, and they draw participation from students, workers, women and ethnic minorities alike—suggesting a deeper structural discontent.

Before examining Trump’s threats, it is essential to understand the systematic campaign that helped prepare the ground for regime destabilisation: a multi-decade covert effort by Israel’s Mossad. This campaign has served twin objectives—degrading Iran’s strategic capabilities while reinforcing its portrayal in Western narratives as an inherently unstable and dangerous state, all under the cloak of plausible deniability.

“Mossad has treated Iran like its playground for years,” observed Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute. “From assassinating nuclear scientists to sabotaging nuclear facilities, Israel has consistently demonstrated the upper hand in this shadow war.”

The campaign that began in earnest in 2007 with the assassination of nuclear physicist Ardeshir Hosseinpour has expanded through targeted killings, cyberattacks and infrastructure sabotage. Israeli intelligence has reportedly exploited socioeconomic vulnerabilities within Iran, recruiting operatives from marginalised communities and relying on encrypted communications and cryptocurrency transfers. Some recruits, according to reports, received training abroad in countries including Georgia and Nepal.